/uc.01
Refinery Utilization
Collapse Events
When utilization drops more than 2 percentage points week-over-week, track the expansion
of heating oil crack spreads to anticipate supply tightening before crude stocks react.
Risk & Trading
/uc.02
WTI-Brent Arb
Exploitation
Identify periods when WTI trades at an extreme discount to Brent due to landlocked crude
logistics, capturing alpha as the arbitrage eventually closes via WTI rallies.
Market Analysis
/uc.03
Term Structure
Backwardation
Assess M1-M2 term structures across NG and HO to determine when the physical market is
pricing immediate scarcity versus when contango setups indicate longer-term relaxation.
Compliance
/uc.04
Forward-Looking
Weather Positioning
Leverage NOAA CPC 6-10 day probabilistic temperature outlooks to execute pre-position
trades ahead of winter demand events before the broader market prices the forecast.
Fundamentals
/uc.05
WTI GARCH
Volatility Expansion
Identify when WTI GARCH volatility expands without a corresponding fundamental
explanation—the hallmark of macro-driven repricing and fear premiums.
Risk
/uc.06
ISO-NE Oil Firing
Probability
Monitor dt1_prob models to anticipate oil-burning generation unit dispatches, giving 1-2
days advance warning on extreme LMP spikes during cold snaps.
Strategic
/uc.07
Autoencoder
Anomaly Detection
Utilize autoencoders to evaluate reconstruction errors; when input patterns deviate far
from the training distribution, Agent88 identifies out-of-distribution states where statistical models fail.
Operations
/uc.08
HDD Extreme
Event Correlation
Detect non-linear relationships where HDD above the 90th percentile drives median LMPs
3.5x higher than baseline via oil firing cascades.
Fundamentals
/uc.09
NASA FIRMS
Thermal Anomalies
Track satellite-detected heat signatures over the Gulf Coast refinery corridor to
identify disruptions 5 days before they appear in EIA data.
Intelligence
/uc.10
Cross-Commodity
Linking
HO prices drive WTI through refinery economics; NG prices affect HO through power-sector
substitution. Validate all multi-layered signals in one place.
Explainability
